Greece's ruling New Democracy party (ND) continues to face mounting public pressure over the political aftermath of the 2023 Tempi train tragedy, with ongoing scrutiny of its handling and perceived efforts to limit accountability. While new revelations regarding the handling of the tragedy continue to dominate headlines, the ruling ND seeks to manage the fallout through a recently launched parliamentary investigation into former Transport Minister Kostas Karamanlis.

Although Greece's centre-right ruling party maintains a narrow lead in the polls, public frustration over the lack of accountability and perceived impunity regarding the tragedy, as well as over persistent inflation, is reshaping the Greek political landscape. Opposition parties are pressing for deeper inquiries and tougher legal consequences, while internal dissent and outside pressure have reenergized parts of the electorate. The debate over whether to politically shield Karamanlis or widen responsibility has split the parties and heightened polarization. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment Course of Freedom party has continued to gain ground in the polls.

While Greece’s next parliamentary elections are due in 2027, speculation is growing about potential early elections or at least a major political move in the coming year. A key event looming later in 2025 is the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) in September, which Greek PMs traditionally use to announce their economic agenda and to define the political narrative. The PM is expected to use the TIF stage to highlight achievements – from regaining investment grade to securing foreign investments – and may unveil additional relief measures if fiscal space allows. However, continuing pressure over the Tempi train crash investigations and sinking polling numbers could prompt the PM to introduce new measures to reenergize the ND voter base, which may include high-level personnel changes.

For investors, Greece's economic fundamentals remain stable, but political risk is creeping upward. Monitoring how the Tempi issue is handled — particularly whether it escalates into broader institutional or public backlash — will be key in assessing the government’s bandwidth to pursue its reform and investment agenda.