Slovakia is gearing up for one of its most anticipated elections in recent history. Following years of political turbulence under the country’s previous, centre-right coalition governments, the upcoming snap election on 30 September could see the electoral comeback of longtime former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his centre-left-turned-populist SMER-SSD party.

Since the last parliamentary elections in 2020, Slovakia’s ideologically and structurally diverse political arena has gone through a radical transformation. Latest polls suggest that the populist SMER, which fell out of power in 2020 due to anti-corruption protests, is leading against its main rival, the proEuropean and centrist-liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) movement, and is on course to form the country’s next government with support from the Slovak far-right.

At the same time, multiple centrist parties are hovering around the electoral threshold, meaning a PSled pro-EU coalition government also remains a possibility. Forming a functioning parliamentary majority and a stable governing coalition will be a significant challenge for either SMER or PS, while an inconclusive result is also a distinct possibility, leading to yet another re-run election and a new caretaker government.

Below, Aretera provides a pre-election overview, with implications for political stability.